A Little More Football
Chatting with some fellas at lunch, we played out some more scenarios about the Vikings pursuit of the NFC Central division title.
With the outcome of yesterday's games, the Vikings and Bears have entered a race that we want our local Vikings to win. Of course, we have little to do with that victory, beyond, perhaps, supporting the team on game-day with our cheers and jeers as appropriate.
These two teams are tightly entrenched in a close battle for the division title, and, sadly, we are entirely too close to elimination.
Division Champion
There are three games left in the playoffs, and each has its own importance. Most important to the Vikings is to win more than the Bears do. If the Vikings pull off two more victories than the Bears(which essentially means the Bears loose two or three of the remaining games), they're on top and win the Division. If they meet at the end of the season tied, which means the Vikings have won one more than the Bears, the victor of that game wins the division. If the Vikings loose, well, really any games, then they're probably out of the race.
Because of the convolution of derivations, this is ugly to figure out with a few weeks left in such a close race.
Ideally, the Vikings need to win all three of their next games, and the Bears need to loose either of their other two (the other loss against the Vikings in week 17). This would put the Vikings one game up after the last game, winners.
If the Vikings lose one of the next two, the Bears must lose to the Packers for the Vikings to be able to tie at the end of the season and win the tie-breaker if they defeat the Bears at the last game. If the Vikings lose one of the next two, but the Bears loose both of them, then the Vikings can win the division by defeating the Bears in the last game. If the Vikings lose one of the next two, but the Bears loose only to the Falcons, the Vikings will lose the common opponent tie breaker even if they tie overall records by defeating the Bears at the end of the season.
If the Vikings loose both of the next two, the Bears must loose all three of their games for the Vikings to tie at the end of the season by defeating the Bears in that last game. The Vikings would win the division record tie-breaker. If the Vikings loose the next two, and the Bears lose only one or fewer games, the Vikings cannot win the division by any means.
Wildcard
Now, your more astute football fan would be following the other divisions the whole season long. Certainly, longer than I have been. Unlike other fans, I find other things that distract me so much more than sports statistics. Nonetheless, I do like to be involved in the conversations, and being the numbers guy that I am, I do enjoy the comparative and statistical analysis involved in figuring some of these things out.
Two wildcard teams are used in the play offs in each conference. There are six play-off spots, four for the division conferences, and two for the next two highest ranked teams. As always, I look at these things with the good-spirited home-town fan perspective; that is, always with the Vikings in mind.
If the season ended today, the Vikings would be tied for the NFC wildcard with the Cowboys, and the Vikings would win the tie-breaker for the conference. The Bucaneers have the same record as the Panthers in their division, both of which are stronger than the Vikings and Cowboys, so one would take the division, and the other a wildcard spot (actually the number one spot).
Thankfully, the season is not over today, so we have some more fun to calculate.
Essentially, any team with six wins or better have a chance of winning the wildcard over the Vikings today.
If the Vikings tanked, loosing the next three games, their record would be 8-8; Since the Bucanneers and Panthers are already at 9-4 they'd at worst tank out at 9-7 and still beat the Vikings; other than the NFC South, all division leaders are safely ahead and won't be wild cards. Well, see the discussion above about the Bears and Vikings fight for the NFC Central.
No one in the NFC West can achieve a record better than 8-8, except Seattle who has already clinched their division, and aren't a factor in the Wildcards.
The Cowboys (8-5), Redskins (7-6), and Falcons (7-5) stand a chance at being in the Vikings' way. The Falcons play tonight, so they've got four games remaining, while everyone else has three.
If all three teams won or lost all three of the remaining games, the Vikings make it into the wildcard spot with the tie-breaker over the Cowboys.
Very neatly, if the Vikings win three games, they win the wildcard spot or they've taken the division (in which case my simple analysis is irrelevant). The best is for the Cowboys to tie in overall standings, but they loose the tie-breaker.
Cowboys
Currently, the Vikings win the tiebreaker with a better division conference. If they both win all three games, it stays that way.
If either team wins one more than the other (e.g., one goes 3-0 and one goes 2-1 in the remaining games), it's an easy overall record winner for that team.
If they win and loose together, though, they must loose at least two and the Vikings must defeat the Bears. The Cowboys play all three of their games against NFC teams, while the Vikings only conference game remaining is against the Bears.
If they each loose one game, their records end up tied at 10-6. The Cowboys conference record becomes 9-3, while the Vikings can hope only for 8-4. The Redskins and Falcons could come into the mix by winning all three of their games and winning with a tie-breaker.
If they each loose three, they end up tied at 9-7, they will have tie-breaking conference records of Vikings (7-5) and Cowboys (6-6) for a Vikings win, unless another team has won the spot; the Redskins or Falcons could take the spot by winning all of their remaining games, or loosing one and winning the tie-breaker.
If they each loose two, they will end up tied at 8-8. The Cowboys will have a conference record of 7-5. If the Vikings defeat the Bears, their conference record will be 8-4, giving them the spot. If the Vikings lost one of those games to the Bears, the tie-breaker would depend on which teams defeated the Cowboys; two of the three remaining games are against two of the five common opponents, which is the next tie breaker. This could be upset by one Redskin or Falcon victory and a tie-breaker, or two victories by either team.
Redskins & Falcons
Currently these teams are two victories away from contending for a wild card spot in the NFC.
If the Vikings and Cowboys loose one game (10-6), and either or both of these teams go undefeated for the rest of the season (10-6), one of them could get the wildcard spot in a tie-breaker.
If the Vikings and Cowboys loose two games (9-7), and either or both of these teams win three (10-6) or two (9-7) games and a tie breaker, they get the wildcard.
If the Vikings and Cowboys loose three games (8-8), and either or both of these teams win one and a tie breaker, or two or more games, they get the wildcard spot.
This means essentially the Vikings need one more victory than these three teams.
Giants & Bucaneers & Panthers
These teams are currently ahead of the Vikings and Cowboys in the pursuit of the wildcard spot. For the purposes of other discussion, they'd been left as likely division winners. It's unfair to completely rule them out, however.
The Giants and Cowboys are in the same fight as the Vikings and Bears; one game apart, and the Redskins are only two games out, so this division is entirely in play. It is possible that the Giants would lose their way into wild-card contention, which would add them to the Vikings mix, if they needed to be in there. Essentially, what's good for the Cowboys in the NFC East is good for the Vikings.
The Bucaneers and Panthers are 9-4 tied for tops in their division, over the still fighting Falcons. Again, there's a possibility of an upset and a tie. I'd factored the Bucanners or Panthers for the one wild card seat (the other taking the NFC South), but a good set of losses to those teams, and this turns into a deeper race.
Seahawks
This is the only team in the NFL to have clinched their division. Thankfully, none of the other teams in the NFC West are wild card contenders, either.