Now the terrorists claim the Zawahiri letter is a fake.

It probably is. If not an invention of the US intelligence agency for some conspiracy to sway opinion or worse, then by someone looking to perpetrate a hoax on the American people and military.

Just as likely is the possiblity that the denial is fake. Well, the denial is real, but it's a lie. That would mean that the letter is real.

What would it mean to either side?

If the letter is a fake, then some boasting rights of the US fail; their intelligence isn't as keen as we hope, or their sources have the better of us, or they're just plain making crap up.

If the letter is real, but the denial is a lie, then the terrorists are just going about their normal propoganda day.

If the letter is real, then the Afghanistan-based leadership wants the Iraq-based insurgents to ease up a little; stop killing so many muslims, stop with the unsightly beheading. They also want the insurgents to pace themselves for the battle to come; once the Coalition forces leave, to overthrow the government and start the ruckus in neighboring countries.

If the letter is a fake, then the fakers were trying to get everyone to believe that was the message from higher in al-Qaeda, and that the message is to ease up and prepare for the future.

If the letter is a fake, then the victims are those who believe the message, or those who believe the Coalition intelligence is that solid.

If the letter is real, then the victims are those who wrote the letter and those to whom the letter was written.

If the letter is real, as released, it does not reveal any tactical information. At best it confirms that Zawahiri was alive to write it and that Abu Musab al-Zarqawi is believed to be in Fallujah.

If the letter is a fake, then the status of those individuals may have been put into question by readers.